Javier Millay 2023 Presidential Debate: “We’re at 470% in food if we analyze end-to-end inflation data.”

If you only have a few seconds, read these lines:

Presidential candidate of La Libertad Avanza, Javier MileyFirst time confirmed Presidential debate 2023: “If we look at inflation data end to end, we are at 470% in food” What does the data say?

This is rushed. Miley’s calculation comes from last August’s (15.6%) direct inflation in the “food” category. According to INDEC) in the next 12 months. Therefore, as suggested by method of Confirmed, Although the statement may be true, it is a prediction result, not an objective fact..

In the year What Javier Mille said in the first presidential debate in 2023

During the debate, Milley told Union por la Patria candidate Sergio Massa about the state of the country’s economy: “Here they show inflation of 120% in 12 months.” If we take the maximum data and analyze it, we are at 300%. If we look at food, we are at 470%. If we look at the mass, it will travel 700%.

Confirmed The La Libertad Avanza candidate’s press team was contacted to inquire about the source of the statements, but had not received a response by the time this note was published.

(NEW) Javier Mille, 2023 Presidential Debate: “If we take inflation data end-to-end and analyze it, we’re at 470% in food.” # hastened

The statement is the result of a projection, not actual data. https://t.co/wFBwzFys9b

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– Checked (@Chequeado) October 2, 2023

Inflation in the “food” category

According to INDEC data, inflation last August in the “food and non-alcoholic beverages” category It was 15.6%. This is the maximum value. Statistical series Started in December 2016..

In December 2022, the commodity price index increased by 95 percent. Meanwhile, in the first 8 months of 2023, the increase was 78.1% and in the last 12 months, it showed an increase of 133.5%.

These data show the rate of food inflation, but they are far from what Milley reported..

How will the presidential candidate of La Libertad Avanza arrive at the said image? If the latest food inflation rate (15.6%) is assumed to be consistent over the next 12 months. By doing this, the annual food category inflation will be 468.9 percent in August 2024.

Santiago Manukia, head of research at Ecolatina, a consulting firm founded by former minister Roberto Lavagna, pointed out. CheckOr, although there is sometimes a tendency to “annualize some monthly variation in order to estimate the level at which this variable is obtained,” this “should not be confused with estimation.”

The economist explained that. “We need to separate economic speculation, with tools and arguments, from direct inflation.Without any analysis but simply repeating the same data over 12 months.

“Annualizing monthly payments is something that is often done, but we have to see if that is informative or not,” said Gabriel Palazzo, economist at Equilibra consultancy led by economist Martin Rapetti.

Meanwhile, Martin Kallos, economist and director of the consulting firm EPCA, was asked when asked. Confirmed, said that Maley had taken up the issue of food, saying, “This is a variable that has been misbehaving for the past month.” And he added: “It is wrong to say that the prescribed inflation (N of the R: the increase depends on the government’s decisions) is 72% this year, and this is the annual inflation.”

So, according to Miley, “We are at 470% in food if we analyze the inflation data from end to end.” hurry up. His statements are the result of predictions, not the objective reality of reality.. The latest official data showed that year-on-year food inflation was 133.5% in August. In August, the percentage increase in commodity prices over the next 12 months would reach the figure cited by the presidential candidate.